It is almost 2026. This year has been dominated by uncertainty and change. AI and agents have exploded, enabling everyday people to harness powerful, intelligent tools that make their jobs easier, solve problems, and tackle ideas that may have been previously impossible.

When everyone has access to intelligent tools, and anyone can code and build apps…

What will the world look like one year from now?

With a level playing field, I think there are three factors that will separate people.

Agency

The most important factor is agency. Agency is a funny word that doesn’t have a good universal definition. I tend to like the definition posted on X by @karpathy.

Here’s the part that really stood out to me:

People with strong agency tend to set goals and pursue them with confidence, even in the face of obstacles. They’re the type to say, “I’ll figure it out,” and then actually do it. On the flip side, someone low in agency might feel more like a passenger in their own life, waiting for external forces—like luck, other people, or circumstances—to dictate what happens next.

As with any tool, the power will go to those who wield it—the people who lean into it.

Focus

However, with AI as a new tool (let’s call it a 🔨), everything can start to look like a nail. The new capabilities and endless possibilities that AI can bring make it extremely hard to maintain focus.

Shiny object syndrome can hit you like a truck. In this new world, the people who can maintain a strong focus over a long period of time will be much more successful.

Are you willing to spend not just a weekend but months, or even years, on something? You’ll get new ideas and opportunities along the way. It will take strong self-awareness and focus to avoid getting distracted.

Determination

The third factor that will separate people is determination. Having agency and focus means nothing without the willingness to make sacrifices along the way. Building something meaningful requires more than just the ability to “figure it out” and stay focused. It demands real commitment—the kind that hurts.

Are you willing to spend your own money before you have revenue? Sleep less? Say no to social events? Miss out on the next shiny opportunity because you’re committed to seeing your current vision through?

Determination isn’t just about working hard. It’s about making trade-offs that most people aren’t willing to make. While others are waiting for the “perfect moment” or more funding or ideal conditions, determined people are already building with what they have.

What will you cultivate over the next year?

Written as Day 1 as part of the Advent of Writing